The contracting authority's fiscal exposure on a signed PPP during operations, at today's balances: termination compensation by termination route, guarantees and revenue floors, compensation events in progress and disputed claims. A figure for each, a trend against the last review, and an affordability read against the budget and any ceiling. Nothing here values a claim or certifies a payment.
v1.0 — September 2026
The PFRAM framing the Pre-Feasibility Toolkit already uses, carried into operations: direct commitments and contingent liabilities kept apart, one-off stocks kept apart from recurring flows, maximum exposure distinguished from what is likely to be called. Termination compensation is computed by route from the three termination sums of the precedent the product reads, at the debt and equity balances you enter. Every threshold is a stated convention. Paste the contract text and the tool proposes which basis each route uses, for you to confirm.
Paste the agreement, schedules included. The tool looks for the termination-compensation clause and the terms that decide each route's basis (senior creditor claims, threshold equity IRR, retendering and fair value, distributions, insurance proceeds), and for guarantees and revenue floors, and proposes the basis for each route and a note per finding. Nothing is set until you accept it; the text stays in this browser tab.
From the lender report, the compliance certificate or the private party's financial statements. Blank means unknown; a blank senior-debt balance stops the screen.
Three routes, as the precedent's three termination sums group them. Choose the basis the executed contract states; the paste-text step proposes it. "Formula not established" leaves the route unvalued and the screen Not concluded until a basis is chosen or the contract's own figure is entered in the notes and a basis stands in for it.
Recurring flows (a revenue floor, an exchange-rate guarantee) and one-off stocks (a debt guarantee) are kept apart and never summed into one number.
One row per open matter. Status as the change register records it; the likelihood is your assessment, not the tool's.
| Matter | Type | Amount claimed | Status | Likelihood | Age (months) |
|---|
| Route | Basis | Figure | Components and notes |
|---|
| Line | This year | Over the remaining years | Basis |
|---|
The read above is a suggestion computed from the entries. A named person records the decision; an override does not change the suggestion, it sits beside it in the export. The block clears whenever the monitor is re-run.
The Contingent Liability Monitor gives a contracting authority's team one page of its fiscal exposure on a signed PPP, at today's balances, so that a termination, a guarantee call or a claim is not the first time the number is seen. It is screening-level. It computes what the contract's formulas would pay from the figures entered; it does not value a claim, certify a payment, run the financial model, discount anything, or say what will happen. The largest number on the page is usually the compensation on an authority-side termination, which PFRAM describes as typically the largest contingent liability a PPP carries, and the point of the page is that this number is known and tracked before anyone needs it.
The framing is the one the IMF and World Bank PPP Fiscal Risk Assessment Model (PFRAM) uses and the Pre-Feasibility Toolkit's Fiscal Affordability Test already applies at appraisal. Direct commitments (the availability payments the authority has contracted to pay) are shown for scale and kept apart from contingent liabilities (payments the authority makes only if something happens). Within the contingent lines, the tool's own convention keeps one-off amounts (termination compensation, a debt guarantee) apart from recurring ones (a revenue floor, an exchange-rate guarantee) and never sums them into one figure; PFRAM's own stock and flow distinction is the government-finance one between what is recognised on the balance sheet and what passes through the budget. For each, the maximum the authority could have to pay is distinguished from what is likely to be called in the current year; the tool reports both and computes no probability-weighted expected value, because a screening probability of termination is a guess and the appraisal-stage tool already labels its own five-to-ten-per-cent convention as such.
The product this series draws on, PPP Contract Review & Operating Map v1.0.0, reads the precedent's compensation-on-termination clause into three termination sums, each mapped to the routes that pay it. The tool generalises those three into routes A, B and C and lets the user state the basis the executed contract uses for each:
| Route | Terminations that pay it (precedent) | Bases offered | Formula at today's balances |
|---|---|---|---|
| A. Authority-side | Voluntary termination by the authority; authority default; expropriation; prolonged change in law or compensation event | Debt, breakage, redundancy and equity at the threshold IRR (precedent's Termination Sum One); debt and equity contributed less distributions; debt only; formula not established | Senior debt principal + accrued interest, fees and breakage − credit balances + subordinated debt + redundancy and breakage + the equity element the basis names |
| B. Private-party default | Contractor default, including persistent breach | Market value on retendering, or expert fair value, capped at senior creditor claims (Termination Sum Two); a stated share of senior debt; formula not established | Market basis: the lower of the expected market value entered and the cap (senior debt + breakage − credit balances); where no estimate is entered the cap is shown as the upper bound. Debt-share basis: the stated share of senior debt + breakage − credit balances |
| C. No-fault | Prolonged relief event (the precedent's term for the force-majeure type of event); uninsurability | Debt, breakage, redundancy and equity contributed less distributions, less insurance proceeds (Termination Sum Three); debt only; formula not established | Senior debt principal + accrued interest, fees and breakage − credit balances + redundancy and breakage + max(0, equity contributed − distributions) − insurance proceeds |
Equity at the threshold IRR cannot be computed without the financial model, so the tool takes the figure the model gives at the review date; if it is blank, route A is valued without the equity element and says so. The precedent's own bases are bracketed template choices, and its Sum Two comes in two alternatives (retender or fair value; or senior debt less uncontributed equity); the executed contract decides. The product's default-and-termination rule family supplies the findings the tool raises around these figures: a compensation formula using an input nothing defines (DC26), two provisions stating different bases for one route (DC27), deductions, set-off or insurance referred to without treatment (DC28), and compensation with no payment timing (DC29).
A revenue floor is read as this year's shortfall (floor less actual revenue, floor zero) and, for scale, as the floor times the years it still runs, undiscounted, which is the bound if revenue were nil rather than a likely figure; a downside case is the better number where one exists. A debt guarantee is shown at its full amount as a one-off stock, and because it repays the same debt the termination sum repays, the maximum one-off exposure counts the larger of the two rather than both. An exchange-rate or indexation guarantee is shown at this year's estimated cost and at that cost times the years it runs, a run-rate rather than a bound. Claims in progress are totalled three ways: claimed, committed (agreed or determined) and likely (committed plus those the team rates likely). Ages are shown so a claim that is hardening is visible.
The ten-per-cent and three-per-cent lines against the annual budget, and the eighty-per-cent line against a ceiling, are the tool's own screening conventions, chosen to separate a manageable year from one that needs a budget decision; every one is stated so it can be argued with. Where GDP is entered the maximum one-off exposure is also shown as a share of GDP; the two-per-cent line printed beside it is the Pre-Feasibility Toolkit's own indicative screening convention, not a figure from PFRAM or the IMF. The read is a suggestion that a named person accepts or overrides with a reason; both appear in the export; no override is accepted while no read has been suggested.
If the last review's figures are entered, each headline shows the change since then. Exposure normally falls as debt amortises; a rising maximum termination exposure means new debt, a refinancing, a capital change or a change of basis, and the tool names it as something to explain rather than as a finding.
The optional step on the Contract tab is the same pattern engine as the other tools in the series. Here the targets are the compensation-on-termination clause and the terms that decide each route's basis (senior creditor claims, threshold equity IRR, distributions, market value, retendering, liquid market, fair value, insurance proceeds), plus guarantees and revenue floors. It proposes the basis for each route, and a note per finding with the locator and a quote; each needs an explicit Accept, and no figure is ever set from the text. Bracketed placeholders are not read; a mechanism not found is not evidence of absence.